Regardless of whatever efforts are made to create standards for real time 3D systems based on XML, yet another effort is announced and players line up to support it. This time, it is Collada. (www.collada.org)

Given the heavy handed efforts out there to control and create an environment for an industry (gaming) that has no history of interoperability, one has to wonder if any of these efforts have legs. One wonders what the investors and marketers can make of all of this other than, this is a market that has fragmented before it has sales. Strange and bizarre.

The only conclusion I can draw is that the interest in real time 3D on the Web is increasing after the long lull. The first victims, as usual, are the pioneers. Collada is basically X3D by another name from another source (Sony) setting itself up to duke it out with 3DIF (Intel) both sitting as squarely on the W3DC with its ISO standard and requirements for open source and unencumbered specifications.

Predator and prey. One wishes the bigCos would learn another game, but not so far. "Thanks for all the fish..."

Of course, the W3C will sit back and watch and Microsoft will move along with XAML and Avalon3D. Perhaps among all of the efforts, a genuine market will emerge and that will create a visible and undeniable need for convergence. Give it ten years.