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Intel Admits its Crystal Ball is Foggy
Despite tales elsewhere of sales evaporating toward the end of September, Intel plunked down its Q3 results Tuesday

Despite tales elsewhere of sales evaporating toward the end of September, Intel plunked down its Q3 results Tuesday and declared them to be “the best third-quarter revenue in its history.”

It was shooting for somewhere between $10 billion and $10.6 billion and came in with $10.2 billion, roughly where Wall Street, which had been mean to tech all day, figured it would land, maybe a tad light.

The number represents a 1% gain year-over-year and 8% sequentially.

Intel earned $2 billion, or 35 cents a share, a penny better than consensus, up 12% year-over-year. The company’s operating profit came to $3.1 billion, up 44% compared to this time last year.

Intel confessed, however, to having no crystal ball that would allow it to look into the future.

“As we look to Q4,” it said, “it is hard to know what impact the financial crisis will have on end customer demand. We are confident that our product portfolio, strong cash flow, commitment to deploying new technology and market momentum will allow us to outpace peer companies at a time when business levels are difficult to predict.”

Given the “wide range of potential revenue outcomes,” Intel is conservatively projecting revenues between $10.1 billion and $10.9 billion in Q4 with a gross margin of 59% more or less.

CEO Paul Otellini noted that $10.9 billion is the lower end of the seasonal pattern. The spread is meant to reflect the mixed message Intel is getting from its customers. Some say the macro-economic turbulent is having no impact on them, he said. Others are “worried.” Intel itself saw no fall in demand in Q3, he said, while admitting to some softness on the corporate side in September that is likely to continue.

Both its processor and chipset units set records in Q3 thanks to mobile, though ASPs were lower sequentially or flat year-over-year, and that its new Atom chips and chipsets delivered $200 million in revenue.

Intel won’t be able to meet Atom demand until late in Q4. Otellini said netbooks (not the nominally cheaper nettops) are “flying off the shelves but swears there’s no evidence of notebook cannibalization and that Intel is diligently watching for signs.

The bellwether’s closely watched gross margin was 58.9%, up from 55.4% in Q2, a factor attributed to lower processor unit costs (likely a result of its 45nm process) and higher microprocessor revenues.

Equity investments lost a much greater-than-expected $265 million, when the number should have been more like $30 million, which Intel attributed primarily to a $250 million impairment of its investment in Numonyx.

Intel’s stock gained back some of its losses for the day in after-hour trading.

Since things are so dicey Intel is going to reinstitute its abandoned practice of holding a mid-quarter update on December 4.

Otellini expects technology to do well in any downturn because of productivity and figures Intel itself is braced for anything.

Its exposure to the financial services debacle is only 15%-18% of its server business. Its employment rolls are down 20,000 people from 2006, it’s cut $3 billion in spending, it’s got $12 billion in the bank and is in a better competitive position. Its new Nehalem chips are already shipping and are sue to launch next month. 

About Maureen O'Gara
Maureen O'Gara is the Virtualization News Desk editor of SYS-CON Media. She is the publisher of famous "Billygrams" and the editor-in-chief of "Client/Server News" for more than a decade. One of the most respected technology reporters in the business, Maureen can be reached by email at maureen(at)sys-con.com or paperboy(at)g2news.com, and by phone at 516 759-7025.

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